To date, I have been involved in 8 startups. Some were service businesses, some were product businesses, some stood alone, some were new businesses inside of existing businesses.
One key is to monitor current buyer/purchaser behavior. Another key is to monitor competitive offerings and look for the possibility of offering versions that are improved, newer, even exclusive. Not to be overlooked are the simplicities found where and when competitors are neither able nor willing to change their offerings. The study of buyers and competitors at the same time can identify needs not being currently served.
Current market and economic conditions have significant impact and can include things like interest rates, consumer confidence, etc.
An overview of my startups to-date:
1 (the first) lost most of my net worth.
2 were marginal/break even (provided more learning than revenue).
5 provided income streams and refunded retirement accounts (1 of the 5 provided 4 investors a 10-fold return on their real estate investment in less than 3 years).
I am currently working on startups numbers 9 & 10.
A favorite Will Rogers quote that fits my personal experience, “I’ve traveled a long way and some of the roads weren’t paved.”